Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) at 35 Times Earnings: Copper Priced In?
A hypothetical $10,000 placed in Freeport-McMoRan at its 52-week low of $35 would be worth about $20,400 today, with the stock near $71.54 as I write this. Few large-cap stocks double in a year, and the ones that do leave a plain question behind: is there anything left in the story that the price has not already collected?
My view is that Freeport is a good business priced for a good outcome, and that the price leaves little margin for a normal outcome. The stock trades at 35.1 times trailing earnings. That is only comfortable if the forward estimate of $3.41 per share arrives, and it arrives only if copper prices and production cooperate. None of that is in management’s control alone, which is the defining feature of a commodity producer.
What the shares are really priced on
Start with the raw numbers. The price of $71.54 is 10.8% below the 52-week high of $80. Market value is about $102.7 billion. Trailing earnings per share are $2.04, so the trailing multiple is 35.1, against a five-year average of 26.3. The stock is paying about a third more per dollar of earnings than it typically has over that period. The full numbers are on Freeport-McMoRan’s financials page.
Forward estimates change the picture, and that is where the whole debate sits. Analysts expect $3.41 of earnings per share, which puts the forward multiple at 21.0. The distance between 35.1 and 21.0 implies about 67% growth in earnings. Two thirds more profit in a year is not a rounding error, and it is rarely a gentle forecast for a company whose revenue grew only 2% last year.
Other multiples point the same way. Price to sales is 3.9 against a five-year average of 2.6, and price to book is 5.1 against 3.8. On all three measures the stock sits well above its own history. A cyclical company at a premium multiple across the board is usually a company the market believes is at the start of something, and cyclicals are also the group where that belief is punished fastest when it turns out to be early.
Revenue barely moved while the stock doubled
Here is the piece I find most useful to keep in mind. Revenue was $25.9 billion in 2025, against $25.5 billion in 2024, $22.9 billion in 2023 and $22.8 billion in 2022. Over three years that is roughly 14% growth. The share price has done far more than the revenue line.
Profit went the other way for the year. Net income was $4.2 billion against $4.4 billion the year before, a small decline, on a net margin of 16%. Operating income was $6.5 billion, an operating margin of 25%. Gross margin slipped from 30.1% to 28.2%. A miner’s margin follows unit costs and the metal price, so a lower gross margin in a year with a strong stock says the market is pricing the future rather than rewarding the past.
The latest quarter shows the same tension. Revenue came in at $7.0 billion, which is -7% from a year earlier, but up 13% from the previous quarter. Annualized, that is about $28.1 billion, above the $25.9 billion full year. The quarter therefore reads as sequential recovery inside a year-on-year decline, and I would not lean on either half of that sentence too hard. Commodity producers post uneven quarters, and a single one says little.
One more detail deserves a caution. Net income of $4.2 billion does not translate directly into the $2.04 of earnings per share. Dividing market value by the price implies about 1.4 billion shares, and 1.4 billion times $2.04 is nearer $2.9 billion than $4.2 billion. The gap is consistent with profit that belongs to minority partners in some of the company’s mines, which is common in mining, but I did not verify the split for this post. The per-share figure is what a shareholder actually owns, so that is the one I use.
Sensitivity: what the price needs
The cleanest way to see the risk is to hold earnings and multiple against each other. All the figures below use the price of $71.54.
| Earnings per share | at 15x | at 21x (today’s forward multiple) | at 26.3x (five-year average) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2.04 (trailing) | $31 | $43 | $54 |
| $2.75 (midway) | $41 | $58 | $72 |
| $3.41 (forward estimate) | $51 | $72 | $90 |
Look at what the table says. Today’s price is only justified by the bottom-right region: forward earnings delivered and a multiple near the average or slightly under it. If forward earnings arrive but the market drops to 15 times, the value is about $51, roughly 29% below today. If earnings reach only $2.75 and the multiple returns to the five-year average, the stock lands near $72, which is today’s price. There is a path where the shares hold up, but only if one of two things goes right, and that is a thinner cushion than a stock that has doubled should offer.
The upside case is real too. Forward earnings at the five-year average multiple would be worth about $90, which is 26% above today. I do not dismiss that. It is why I would rather wait than short it.
Wall Street sees little upside
15 analysts cover the stock. The average target is $76, about 6% above the price, with a range from $66 to $85. The low target is -8% from today, so at least one analyst sees the shares as fully valued. 73% rate the stock a buy. A high share of buy ratings with a 6% average upside says analysts like the company and the story, and also that the price has moved most of the way to their models.
Our quant grade has improved from a C to a B, which fits the picture of a business with improving fundamentals. Short interest is 2.1% of shares, which is low, so there is no crowded bearish positioning to squeeze. That works in both directions: the stock is not held up by a short squeeze, and it is not set to reverse because of one either.
Income is not the reason to own it. The dividend is $0.60 a share over the last twelve months, a yield of 0.84%. For a real income stack, I keep a separate list, and Freeport does not belong on it.
Earnings-day moves and position size
The last report, on 2026-07-23, was followed by a -2.3% move, and the average move after earnings has been 4.7%. That is a volatility measure rather than a forecast, but it is a reminder that miners often move sharply on results and guidance. Anyone holding a stock like this should size it for a swing of that scale, and my note on how I size a position when beta is above 2 explains the arithmetic. A high-beta cyclical at a premium multiple is the kind of holding where the size of the position matters more than the entry price.
How it compares with other stretched names
A premium multiple is not a sin. Owning a stock at 35 times earnings can work when growth is fast enough to shrink the multiple quickly, and the forward figure of 21.0 says that is the bet. Medtronic offers the opposite lesson: my piece on why it looks cheap against its own history shows a steady business at a discount to its average, while Freeport sits at a premium to its own average. Neither is automatically right. A discount can be a trap and a premium can be deserved.
For another commodity-linked comparison, my article on five energy stocks and what each depends on makes the same point about the input price. In every one of these companies, the thing the stock depends on most is outside management’s control, and I try to keep that in front of me when the chart looks good.
What would prove me wrong
I could be wrong if copper stays strong for long enough that earnings not only reach $3.41 but keep rising through the next year, because then 21.0 times forward earnings becomes 21.0 times something too low. A miner that gets a rising metal price on a fixed cost base can produce profit growth far faster than revenue growth, and that is the reason the forward multiple is far lower than the trailing one. Structural demand for copper from electrification and data-center buildouts is a real argument, and I do not doubt the direction of it. My problem is the price. I do not buy a story without asking what it costs.
The other risk, on the downside, is operational. Mines are physical places. A disruption at a single large site, a permit dispute or a labor problem can turn a good quarter into a poor one without any change in the metal price. Investors should read the company’s latest 10-Q on SEC EDGAR for the current production and cost figures, and the company site for guidance, since those are the sources I would trust over any summary, including mine.
A quarter that would earn the multiple
My rough rule is to look for the price at which the risk and reward feel balanced. At a 25 multiple on trailing earnings, the price is about $51, and at 21 times the forward estimate of $3.41 it is the $72 that the stock already trades at. So today’s price already assumes forward earnings arrive in full. I would be more interested near the low $50s, where I would be paying for the trailing profit and getting the forward growth as a bonus.
The number I would watch next is quarterly earnings per share. A report that runs at or above roughly $0.85 a quarter, which is the pace the forward estimate implies, would justify the multiple. Two quarters clearly below that pace would tell me the market is paying for a recovery that has not shown up, and the $66 low target would start to look like the sensible one.
Analysis and opinion only, not investment advice. Figures come from Freeport-McMoRan’s filings on SEC EDGAR and its investor site, plus market data; valuation multiples are approximate and were checked on September 22, 2026.